Sunday, April 17, 2022

French Presidential Election & European Army

I think Emmanuel Macron will win his second term as the President of France quite easily. Probably close to 60 percent of the votes or 59 to 41 percent for Marin Le Pen. The Left will bite its tongue and a majority of its supporters will vote for Macron. With Macron's reelection and his Presidency of the European Union until the end of June, we will see Europe becomes the focus once more in French politics. The aftermath of the war will see the formation of a European army touted by Macron a few years ago.Russia will become weaker while Europe will become stronger and with the unity forged by the fallout of the Russian-Ukraine war, Macron's vision for Europe will see its fruition in large measure. With Merkel gone last year as the 16-year term Chancellor of Germany, Macron will be the mosy influential leader in Europe in the next five years. I see the strengthening of European institutions and the European army espoused by Macron will see its light of day. It might even rival NATO perhaps not in Macron's 2nd term, but European Union will come to realize that America could bring as much troubles in its continent than benefits through NATO. Once the European army is standing, NATO will either play a secondary role but will no longer be the central plank of European security in the next decade or two. With Russia weakened and its economy battered by sanctions, Russia will no longer be the third pillar of a tripolar world with China second and America first. European Union will rival America in its economic might but militarily it will depend less and less on America. The next hotspot is the China-Taiwan conflict. I think China will think twice now seeing how difficult it is to invade another country with powerful allies and economic sanctions could hit China hard with the world's economy so intertwined since America and EU are the top economic powerhouses in the world. 

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